Burnham intervenes on prisons crisis - and risks mistakes being made

Dividing lines between victim groups, fears about prisons becoming full again by Christmas, and concerns that these changes will lead to "inevitable mistakes" – probably not the intended outcomes of the prime minister's urgent review on early release, but that's the reality.

Andy Burnham has blocked cuts to sentences – also known as early release – for rape and serious child sex and grooming offences, which will be welcome news to many.

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Others, though, will be left wondering: what about me, or my case? Why is my perpetrator, some of them who will be in prison for really serious crimes, able to be freed early and not others?

PC Andrew Harper's widow, Lissie, has called the announced review changes "disgusting" and an "utter betrayal".

Thames Valley Police Federation, the force where PC Harper served, said they are "outraged that the justice secretary and the prime minister have decided that killing a police officer in the execution of their duty is somehow less serious than other offences deemed too dangerous for early release".

The Domestic Abuse Commissioner, Nicole Jacobs, has said the government are putting "lives at risk" by not excluding domestic abuse perpetrators in the way that rape offenders and others are.

"While this will be well received by some victims, most will not fall within those categories, and exclusions alone cannot guarantee victim or public safety," said Claire Waxman, the Victims Commissioner.

The problem is, much of this is about pragmatism and politics.

There is a perception that the general public don't care about prisons until it's a conversation about public safety and perceived injustice. This is exactly that.

How did we get here?

The latest row over this policy happened only days after Burnham became prime minister. He probably felt he had little option but to look again – ironically at plans which were made law under Sir Keir Starmer's government earlier this year, following an independent review of sentencing policy.

Burnham has long been a critic of how previous governments have failed victims of injustice or covered up scandals.

But he will also have been told that scrapping the plans altogether wasn't an option because of prison overcrowding.

The male prison estate is operating at around 97% capacity still, even after numerous "emergency" or "temporary" measures, releasing tens of thousands of inmates early, under successive governments.

One prison governor told me their usual "summer lull", as courts start to shut down for August, isn't happening this year. "What does this do to capacity by Christmas?" they asked.

Remember, in 2024 there were just 100 free spaces left across England and Wales. Police custody suites were regularly used as alternative cells.

'A risk mistakes will be made'

But there are fears too that "there is a risk mistakes will be made", according to one prison service source, with fast turnaround sentence recalculations (again) by an already stretched service.

The first tranche of releases wasn't due until 2 September, but the prison and probation service had a while to plan for that date.

It's now been delayed until 1 October, but with new exclusions, which could become complicated. Someone could be serving a sentence for varying offences, and things could be missed, is the worry.

Probation will now only have around six weeks for release planning, once the sentences have been recalculated.

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A reminder – the Sentencing Act 2026, which became law earlier this year, meant prisoners serving standard sentences in England and Wales could be freed after serving a third of their sentence, rather than half, if they didn't break prison rules or commit further offences in jail.

The rest would be spent on supervision in the community, using electronic tagging.

More serious criminals, including those convicted of sexual and violent crimes, would have been eligible for release from prison after serving half of their sentence, rather than two-thirds, as is typically the case at the moment.

'Not the end of the conversation'

This announced review now excludes inmates serving sentences for crimes like rape and grooming offences. But people who are in prison for a crime such as manslaughter can in theory still be released after serving half of their sentence.

What this has to be about is human consequences and confidence in the justice system.

For victims of rape, that's historically been a huge hurdle. The prospect that their demands are being listened to with these changes will be something.

But even a lawyer representing abuse and grooming victims – the perceived beneficiaries of the review – tells me: "This should not mark the end of the conversation."

"Victims of other serious violent offences also deserve confidence that sentences imposed by the courts will be served as intended," they said.

This issue has troubled governments for years now. Burnham will be viewed by some as a new PM who acted decisively and who cares about victims and injustices.

But what's already clear is that the outcome of this review is being seen by others as an injustice in itself.

(c) Sky News 2026: Burnham intervenes on prisons crisis - and risks mistakes being made